Sign in

You're signed outSign in or to get full access.

GR

Guerrilla RF, Inc. (GUER)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Record revenue of $6.29M, up 39% YoY, with gross margin expanding 220 bps to 67.5%; operating loss narrowed to $0.2M and positive operating cash flow of $0.86M marked a pivotal inflection toward profitability .
  • Strength was driven by automotive ($2.4M, +130% YoY) and catalog ($3.2M, +50% YoY), more than offsetting wireless infrastructure weakness (−62% YoY to ~$0.5M) .
  • Management emphasized a “pathway to profitability” and disciplined OpEx (−20% YoY; R&D −21%, S&M −12%, G&A −28%), while noting liquidity of $4.02M and ongoing internal control remediation efforts .
  • Stock reaction catalysts: record revenue and first positive operating cash flow, mix shift toward automotive/catalog, and reduced interest/other expenses after debt actions in 2024; risks include distributor concentration (RFPD/RFMW), internal control material weakness, and wireless infrastructure volatility .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Automotive and catalog momentum: “Strong growth in our automotive and catalog business propelled our revenues to record levels… pathway to profitability” – CEO Ryan Pratt .
  • OpEx discipline: operating expenses fell 20% YoY to $4.44M; R&D −21%, S&M −12%, G&A −28%, driving operating loss improvement to $0.20M .
  • Cash inflection: “Delivering positive cash from operating activities this quarter underscores the progress… toward financial self-sufficiency” – CFO Mike John‑Williams; operating cash flow +$0.86M; quarter-end cash $4.02M .

What Went Wrong

  • Wireless infrastructure downturn: category revenue fell 62% YoY due to prior-year one-time design ramp; mix shift reduced contribution margin by 50 bps to 76.7% .
  • Distributor concentration risk: RFPD accounted for 64% of product shipment revenue; RFMW 15%; high concentration persists .
  • Controls risk persists: disclosure controls “not effective” due to a material weakness; remediation underway, but risk remains until resolved .

Financial Results

Consolidated Performance vs Prior Periods and Estimates

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD)$4,523,700 $4,400,000 $5,400,000 $6,288,310
Gross Profit Margin %65.3% 61.1% 64.9% 67.5%
Operating Income (Loss) ($USD)$(2,609,801) $(3,200,000) $(1,355,074) $(198,361)
Net Income (Loss) ($USD)$(7,201,565) $(3,542,865) $(470,742) $(644,972)
Diluted EPS ($)$(0.71) $(0.3439)*$(0.0453)*$(0.06)
EBITDA ($USD)$(2,228,421)*$(2,858,600)*$(1,068,499)*$108,535*
EBITDA Margin %−49.3%*−65.4%*−19.9%*1.73%*
Cash from Operations ($USD)$(1,773,173)*$(2,263,187)*$(1,082,186)*$858,970*
Cash and Equivalents ($USD)$11,277,741 $6,134,709 $4,813,813 $4,019,417

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Estimates comparison (S&P Global): No consensus revenue or EPS available for Q3 2025; only actuals present, indicating limited/absent coverage for GUER. Values retrieved from S&P Global [GetEstimates].

Segment/KPI Details

  • Segment mix (Q3 2025):
    • Automotive revenue: $2.4M (+130% YoY) .
    • Catalog revenue: $3.2M (+50% YoY) .
    • Wireless infrastructure: ~$0.5M (−62% YoY) .
KPI (Nine Months Ended)20242025
Number of products released23 18
Total products154 181
Products >$100k lifetime revenue73 80
Product backlog ($USD Millions)$5.4 $6.6

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RevenueFY/Q4 2025Not providedNot providedMaintained: no formal guidance
Gross MarginFY/Q4 2025Not providedNot providedMaintained: no formal guidance
OpExFY/Q4 2025Directional cost reductionsContinuing cost realignment and disciplineMaintained (qualitative)
Operating Cash FlowQ4 2025Not providedFocus on disciplined capital managementMaintained (qualitative)
EPS/Tax/OtherFY/Q4 2025Not providedNot providedMaintained: no formal guidance

Note: Company provided qualitative outlook (“pathway to profitability”) but no numerical ranges .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

No Q3 2025 earnings call transcript was available after searches of company and third-party repositories; commentary below references the press release and 10‑Q .

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 2025)Previous Mentions (Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Automotive momentum+72% YoY automotive; focus on demand resilience +39.5% to $2.7M; backlog optimism for H2 $2.4M (+130% YoY); key growth driver Strengthening
Catalog growthModest gains (mil/aero/navigation) +6% to $2.3M $3.2M (+50% YoY) Accelerating
Wireless infrastructureLapped $1.5M one-time design win; shipment reduction Lapped $1.7M one-time design win; down YoY −62% YoY; category headwind Weak/volatile
Cost actions/OpExSignificant reductions; severance/consulting weighed Q1 OpEx −7% YoY; continued headcount/travel controls OpEx −20% YoY; R&D −21%, S&M −12%, G&A −28% Improving leverage
Liquidity/financingExecution on cost plan; seeking profitability Cash $4.8M; macro headwinds acknowledged Cash $4.02M; positive op cash flow; Spectrum $1.1M draw; Salem $4.5M at 12% Stable but tight
Macro/tariffsCited macro uncertainty Elevated rates and tariff uncertainty headwinds International shipments +148%; distribution exposure noted Mixed: macro headwinds, global mix up
Controls/Governance——Disclosure controls not effective; remediation in progress In remediation

Management Commentary

  • “Strong growth in our automotive and catalog business propelled our revenues to record levels in the third quarter 2025. We believe the revenue growth and cost containment efforts we have in place provide a pathway to profitability in the near term.” – Ryan Pratt, CEO .
  • “Delivering positive cash from operating activities this quarter underscores the progress we’ve made toward financial self-sufficiency… focused on maintaining disciplined capital management as we continue executing our growth strategy.” – Mike John‑Williams, CFO .
  • MD&A highlights: gross margin expansion to 67.5% (leveraged revenue, flat other direct costs), operating loss narrowed primarily due to revenue increase and OpEx reductions; distributor concentration (RFPD 64%, RFMW 15%); international shipments +148% to 44% of sales .

Q&A Highlights

No Q3 2025 earnings call transcript or Q&A was available; analysis reflects press release and 10‑Q disclosures .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus coverage for GUER appears unavailable for Q3 2025; no consensus values provided for revenue or EPS, only actuals present. Values retrieved from S&P Global [GetEstimates].
  • Implication: Street models likely sparse/NA; revisions will hinge on internal targets and qualitative roadmap (profitability path, mix shift, cost controls) rather than formal beats/misses .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Mix-led growth is durable: automotive and catalog engines offset infra volatility; continuing design-win ramps and new product sales underpin momentum .
  • Margin and OpEx cadence improve: gross margin 67.5% with disciplined OpEx (−20% YoY) drives operating leverage; watch if 67%+ gross margin sustains with higher auto mix .
  • Cash inflection is noteworthy: first positive operating cash flow (+$0.86M); liquidity is adequate but tight ($4.02M), with debt facilities (Spectrum draw $1.1M; Salem $4.5M at 12%)—execution on cash discipline is a near-term trading catalyst .
  • Risk management: distributor concentration (RFPD/RFMW) and internal control material weakness (not yet remediated) are key watch items that can affect volatility and valuation .
  • Wireless infrastructure remains cyclical: lapping prior-year one-time wins leads to softer comps; expect continued variability—narrative relies on diversification into auto/catalog .
  • No formal guidance: management signals profitability pathway but provides no ranges; monitoring quarterly cash generation, OpEx run-rate, and order backlog ($6.6M YTD) will be critical for modeling .
  • Medium-term thesis: fabless RF portfolio breadth and design-win momentum plus cost discipline can drive a path to breakeven/profitability; balance sheet and governance/control remediation are necessary supporting pillars .